The latest episode of The President’s Inbox is live! This week, Jim sat down with Tanvi Madan, senior fellow in the Center for Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, to discuss the White House meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump and what it says about the current and future state of U.S.-India relations.

Here are three highlights from their conversation:

1) Modi and Trump want to deepen bilateral relations. India and the United States have grown closer over the last two decades, especially on defense cooperation. Modi traveled to Washington, DC, to meet Trump so quickly after his inauguration to ensure that progress continues. The two leaders developed close personal ties during Trump’s first term. This time around, to get ahead of U.S. concerns over India’s policy on trade, immigration, and security, Modi arrived with preemptive concessions. He lowered tariffs on some American exports, promised to crack down on illegal immigration from India, and proposed plans to buy more U.S. energy and defense goods. “India’s attempting to do two things,” Tanvi explained. “Brush clearing to avoid flare-ups, and laying the groundwork for future deals.” For his part, Trump wants to take advantage of his strong working relationship with Modi to reach a deal that will advance his own America First agenda.

2) Domestic politics and economic realities will limit what Modi and Trump can accomplish. Modi sees U.S. foreign investment as a way to spur economic growth before the 2026 Indian elections. Trump is keen on a striking a deal, especially one that balances the U.S.-India trade deficit and fuels U.S. exports. While U.S. law gives Trump considerable discretion to impose tariffs, a major trade deal would require congressional approval. That could be hard to get. Trump’s own coalition fears disruptions to domestic manufacturers and has already brawled over the H-1B visa program that India wants to see continued. Furthermore, the big-ticket defense systems that Modi is proposing to buy such as F-35 fighters would strain India’s defense budget. Nevertheless, Tanvi argues, “If there was ever going to be a deal, it’s probably now,” but “[Modi and Trump] have a narrow window of political opportunity.”

3) Trump’s talk of a rapprochement with Russia and China unnerves Modi. During the Cold War, India was an ally of the Soviet Union and a rival of China. Concerns about China’s rapid growth have helped drive U.S. cooperation with India, which sees Washington as a deterrent against Beijing. Tanvi noted: “India knows that it needs the U.S. for ensuring regional security and a multipolar Asia.” But Trump’s unpredictable stance on China, oscillating between tough rhetoric and conciliatory overtures, has raised alarm in New Delhi. Similarly, any U.S.-Russia détente could ease economic pressure and undermine India’s balancing strategy. Even while pushing for deeper U.S. partnership, expect Modi to look to strengthen India’s autonomy and self-sufficiency to hedge against being excluded from great power politics.  

If you’re looking to read more from Tanvi, check out her 2020 book Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped US-India Relations during the Cold War or her latest article in Foreign Affairs titled “India Is Hoping for a Trump Bump.”